The Post-Pandemic, Post-Protest Canadian Conservative Party

Politics & Economics

Photograph by: Mandy Guo

In the wake of protests in February that reduced the Canadian capital of Ottawa to a gridlock, now-former Canadian Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole was forced to resign as the majority of his MPs sought to see him removed. With the next federal election scheduled for 2025, the party has scheduled its leadership election for September this year in the hopes of finding a leader that can unify the party and secure as many seats as possible in parliament. While the Conservatives grapple with the priority of pandemic recovery and resolving the growing popularity of populism in Canada, the next few months will be crucial in determining how the party of the official opposition frames itself against Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. O’Toole’s legacy on the Conservative Party was a controversial one, shifting the party to a more moderate platform in the hopes of defeating Trudeau’s Liberals, an attempt that ultimately proved futile as the 2021 election provided a virtually identical share of parliamentary

seats for the party. A more nuanced analysis of the results, however, indicated an underlying message for those seeking to unify the Canadian right-wing. By moving his platform more towards the mainstream electorate, O’Toole lost the support of those that were typically the most loyal base of the Conservative party, whereas the more radically right-wing populist party, the People’s Party of Canada, rose from the fringes of Canadian politics to amass a staggering 5% of the popular vote. O’Toole’s abandonment of the traditional Conservative voting coalition brewed discontent within the party, and discussions regarding O’Toole’s stay as party leader began once the election results were announced.

Following the election, the governing Liberal party set tougher guidelines in place to counter the spread of Covid-19, policies that prodded at the nerves of numerous Canadians in all provinces of the country. By late January, protestors had gathered across the country, most notably in the capital city Ottawa, to voice their concern over the pandemic restrictions. These concerns eventually boiled over into a more general hatred of the governing Liberal party, whilst simultaneously promoting populist alternatives to the current rules. Given the partisan nature of such a protest, the movement was glorified among many on the Canadian right, which ultimately placed O’Toole in a difficult position, given that many protesters openly criticized his moderate stance and called for his removal as party leader. Seeing the writing on the wall, the Conservative party moved to vote out O’Toole as they identified the growing appetite for a more populist style of conservatism.

Before the Conservative leadership race had even officially begun, party finance critic Pierre Poilievre threw his hat into the ring. Poilievre is a massively popular and notable figure on the Canadian right, offering libertarian and populist values in a well-spoken and charismatic package, often to the delight of Canadian Conservatives. Given the current Canadian cultural and political climate, Poilievre is a figure that will quickly gain popularity, and he would likely mount the strongest challenge against the governing Liberals.

The Conservative party is currently in a fractured state, and O’Toole was a symptom of the shrinking coalition that was forcibly patched together. Poilievre on the other hand is the candidate that is most likely to unify a coalition with a proven track record of winning votes. The last time Conservatives won a federal election, their party leader Stephen Harper ran on a platform that focused on fiscal growth and responsibility, offering a plan that clearly had great demand among the electorate. Poilievre has positioned himself similarly, largely centring himself around economic issues that have proven to resonate with the Canadian right, particularly in the post-pandemic environment where Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been criticized for spiralling inflation rates and reckless deficit spending. Poilievre also appeals to the aforementioned growing taste for populism in Canada, as his praise of the Ottawa protestors combined with strong populist rhetoric draws support from those that left the Conservative Party to vote for the People’s Party. Poilievre's almost unilateral support among the Canadian right has led to the media portrayal of the leadership race to be nothing more than a formality. His unique ability to form a coalition reminiscent of the same one that won three consecutive federal elections is a clear separation from O’Toole’s failed attempts to “modernize” the party via moderate appeal, and would successfully solidify the Conservative base.

Whether or not Poilievre would be able to defeat the governing Liberal Party is a question that can’t be definitively answered until the next election season, especially since political electability is subject to changes in the national environment. But Poilievre’s unrivalled ability to amass a proven winning coalition among the Canadian right makes him the strongest opposition candidate to the governing Liberal Party, and the strongest candidate to lead the Conservatives into a future election.